A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but very few politicians or activists want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
